�
[1]
�� I explained in my recent Knowledge Infusion webinar [2] that I
think web 2.0 and social networking tools can lead to
transformational changes in organisations, and made the same point in
show 001 of TalkingHR [3]. But do these opportunities really exist, or
am I just falling for the hype / bubble around web 2.0 [4]?
I've had this question at the back of my mind for a while (since
someone challenged me with a comment on this blog back in April), so
I was pleased to receive a copy of Gardner's book, 'Mastering the
Hype Cycle' [5].
I first came across the hype cycle when Jim Holincheck [6] very kindly
sent me a copy of Gartner's report, 'Hype Cycle for Human Capital
Management Software' [7] last year.
However, the book explains that the cycle was actually developed in
1995 while looking at the common patterns involved in the
introduction of new technologies such as artificial intelligence,
video on demand and the 'newly emerging world wide web'.� I missed it
as I was just moving out of IT into HR at that time.
A bit like the S curve [8], the hype cycle shows that innovation
adoption does not happen as a straight line but follows a predictable
curve, travelling through the following five phases:
*1. "Technology Trigger"*
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or
breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates
significant press and interest.
*2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"*
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates
over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some
successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more
failures.
*3. "Trough of Disillusionment"*
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail
to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently,
the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
*4. "Slope of Enlightenment"*
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some
businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and
experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of
the technology.
�
*5. "Plateau of Productivity"*
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of
it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes
increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The
final height of the plateau varies according to whether the
technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market
�
The book provides some good examples of hype cycles and also explain
its causes, which include:
*Social Contagion*
"Although we might not like to admit it, we humans are at our core
extraordinarily sensitive to what others around us are doing and
saying.� We want to be seen as individuals, yet not be perceived as
too different.�
Our tendency to be influenced by others probably originates from raw
survival needs.� Early humans who joined the crowd fleeing from an
unseen enemy probably lived to tell the tale.� If they insisted on
validating the appropriateness of their cave colleague's behaviour
through personal research, they probably found themselves wiped out
of the gene pool by a herd of stampeding mammoths."
�
*Zeitgeist*
"[This is] a common social framework of attitudes, outlook, values,
and expectations...� Innovations that fit within the framework are
more likely to attract attention and generate excitement than those
that take us in a fundamentally different direction."
�
The book lists the dangers inherent in adopting new technology
(adopting too early, giving up too soon, adopting too late. and
hanging on too long).� However, the movements in the cycle also
provide opportunities, for example in the recruitment of:
* Scarce talent looking to sell their knowledge and skills at a
premium near the peak of the cycle
* Demotivated but highly experienced talent during the trough
* Talent with considerable relevant experience who want to stay
aligned with a specific innovation as it moves from slope to
plateau.
�
There's also a process to navigate the cycle: scope, track, rank,
evaluate, evangelise and transfer (STREET).
One point I was pleased to see Gartner make, and that I completely
agree with is that "the hype cycle really isn't about technology, but
about the *human reaction* to anything new - in particular the
mismatch between expectations and reality".
�
So what about web 2.0?� Well, the book doesn't really deal with this,
and I guess Gartner doesn't want to impact sales of its recent
emerging technologies [9] report.
But according to other bloggers [10], this report shows corporate
blogging, wikis and social network analysis entering into the slope
of enlightenment.
Microblogging is still in the technology trigger stage (and prediction
markets [11] seem to have dropped off the cycle since Gartner's 2006
report).
But web 2.0 is now entering the trough of disillusionment, so we may
be going to see a bust in this bubble quite soon.� But Gartner still
sound quite upbeat:
"Although Web 2.0 is now entering the Trough of Disillusionment, it
will emerge within two years to have transformational impact, as
companies steadily gain more experience and success with both the
technologies and the cultural implications,"
�
What do you think?� It'd be great to have your comments on this.
�
Technorati Tags: Mastering the Hype Cycle [12],Garter [13],Jackie
Fenn [14],Mark Raskino [15],web 2.0 [16]
[17]
Links:
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[1] http://lh4.ggpht.com/Jgingham/SOJEJUEoTQI/AAAAAAAABB8/u9GMYbyMMGU/hype%20cycle-8x6.jpg?imgmax=800
[2] http://strategic-hcm.blogspot.com/2008/09/hr-20-webinar.html
[3] http://www.blogtalkradio.com/talkinghr
[4] http://social-business.blogspot.com/2008/04/is-web-enterprise-20-bubble.html
[5] http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/
[6] http://blogerp.typepad.com/
[7] http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?doc_cd=149590
[8] http://strategic-hcm.blogspot.com/2007/11/sigmoid-curves-in-people-management.html
[9] http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=739613
[10] http://www.nevillehobson.com/2008/08/28/notables-in-the-2008-gartner-hype-cycle/
[11] http://social-business.blogspot.com/2008/09/and-prediction-markets.html
[12] http://technorati.com/tags/Mastering%20the%20Hype%20Cycle
[13] http://technorati.com/tags/Garter
[14] http://technorati.com/tags/Jackie%20Fenn
[15] http://technorati.com/tags/Mark%20Raskino
[16] http://technorati.com/tags/web%202.0
[17] http://feedads.googleadservices.com/~a/1H_E-9xGlho1a9XrEhmhcFcByMg/a
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