9 Kasım 2009 Pazartesi

Today Post::INDEX UPDATE: NEUTRAL-BEARISH

Currently neutral-bearish. My sentiment has not changed and I believe the correction may take a while, but that’s just my thoughts. What are we looking for?

SPX - The 20-day MA test continues with a possible H&S pattern developing. The criteria is that a lower high is produced on the daily which is TBD.

DJIA - Possible ascending triangle still developing.Out of all the indices, if we do continue with the rally, the DJIA should be the first to break to new highs.

COMP - Currently the most neutral out of all the indices. Between the 20/50-day MA’s. Will be neutral for several days. Possible channels are drawn out.

RUT - Still the weakest of all.Broke an ascending triangle and now flagging. The 20-day MA has crossed below the 50-day MA and may be used as future resistance. Look for further consolidation.

BKX - Weakest sector is the banking index. Forming a bear flag. The market will have difficulty if the financials do not rally. Pretty obvious, right? Watch them carefully.

All of this is where the neutral-bearish stance comes. When you trade, never forget to look for the high probability setups. I am playing them daily, and winning daily. The better the intra-day and/or daily setup, the better odds you have at success. Don’t just “play anything” or people like me will take your money.

Don’t complain about my wins. If you aren’t winning, then you’re doing something wrong. Figure out what you’re doing wrong, fix it, and start winning with me.

Today Post::BEARISH / THE TRLG TRADE

Yesterday’s big trades were in TRLG for me. It wasn’t like the day before where I absolutely killed it, but nonetheless, I managed to hit TRLG twice and profit twice. The diagram of trades taken is pictured below. The green squares are short entry points and the orange squares are scaled out exit points. I “missed” two trades, but only because the volume wasn’t there and also because the 2nd “miss” was right after the FOMC decision. Execution was near perfect on this, so study it.


Moving onto the general market, I am bearish as the title of the post suggests. We formed a gravestone doji on the SPX, shooting star on the DJIA, and a dark cloud cover on the RUT. All three are bearish signals. In addition, note how the indices are “churning” at their respective MA’s. If you watch my shows on Stocktwits TV, you would know that I consider this move mostly bearish. The last chart is the IWM, the Russell 2000 iShares ETF. Note the massive sell off volume. The RUT did and will continue to lead the way.

Today Post::MORNING THOUGHTS (UPDATED WITH FSYS TRADE)

Yesterday’s best trades were in WFMI and FSYS. I am nearing a 20% total portfolio gain for just this week alone and the week isn’t even over yet. If you don’t believe me, then obviously you’re a nOOb reader in the CA Trading Room. I am the one and only Chart Addict and my returns are far superior than yours. Stick around for a while and you might learn something.

Yesterday’s call on the general market was very wrong, and I don’t care. I don’t even trade the general market. It’s such a beautiful thing when your predictions are wrong, yet you still make a +6% total portfolio gain. Hope that’s a lesson in playing only the best and highest probability trades, regardless of overall direction.

I have to see how this next leg turns out. I estimate that it will be another week before a IT determination can be made. Always keep an open mind and never let your opinions get in the way of great opportunities. You are your own worst enemy. Never forget the POWER OF CHARTS.

I have no idea where we are going in the markets, but I guarantee you that I will win again today - that would make every single day of this week a win. Watch and learn, folks.

Here was the FSYS trade yesterday. All documented on my Chart Addict blog and on my twitter in real time:

Today Post::FOMC DAY / SPX in DESCENDING CHANNEL + FLAG

Thanks to everyone that watched the show last night. If you couldn’t, it’s in the Stocktwits.tv archives.

I am undecided on direction for today simply because we have the FOMC announcement today at 2:15PM. I don’t suggest trading prior to that announcement (if you are trading the indices). I suggest careful and decisive trading based on the reaction. The full reaction should take 30-45 minutes.

The SPX is in a downward channel. As the day progresses, note that we are near dual resistance levels (on the 10-day chart). We are forming a flag that is most clearly visible on the multi-month daily chart.

Today Post::DESCENDING CHANNEL

Below is the 5-day chart of the SPX with a ‘extra day’ added on for today. See the descending channel? Use that as your short-term guide.


The RUT is now at the 100-day MA as it formed a doji yesterday. There wasn’t much of a fight at the 50-day, so let’s see if we see some struggle here. Make note that this is the first time! the RUT touched the 100-day since April.

Today Post::In Cheap We Trust by Lauren Weber - Book review

In Cheap We Trust

The Story of a Misunderstood American Virtue

By: Lauren Weber

Published: September 7, 2009
Format: Hardcover, 320 pages
ISBN: 9780316030281
Publisher: Little, Brown & Company

“Part of the reason I embrace the word cheap is that it embodies some of the contradictions, ambivalence, and confusion we feel about money”, writes self professed cheapskate Lauren Weber in her entertaining and thought provoking book about the changing nature of thrift in America In Cheap We Trust: The Story of a Misunderstood American Virtue. The author takes the reader on a whirlwind tour of American history, exploring how different times had different social attitudes toward thrift, and dispels many of the myths surrounding how Americans thought about saving money. The author points out as well, that thrift is returning to America as a social virtue, and she sees saving becoming a social badge of honor following a period of reckless consumer spending and debt.

Lauren Weber grew up with a father who was very cheap with money for household expenses, but was very generous with charitable donations and with providing good educational opportunities for his children. His dualistic approach to spending forms an archetype of the American historical relationship toward personal spending and saving. The author points out that many people will state emphatically that Americans used to be savers in the good old days, not like the irresponsible spenders of the modern era. Lauren Weber demonstrates that thrift was not always a highly regarded American virtue. She begins her study with a description of Benjamin Franklin, often considered the epitome of thrift. While Franklin may have practiced caution with money some of the time, he was free spending the rest of the time. As America changed from the early agricultural era, where saving everything was a matter of survival, to the industrial world of consumerism, the attitude toward thrift chan! ged many times as well.

Lauren Weber (photo left) describes how thriftiness, as a cultural and racial characteristic, became part of the shameful prejudice against Jews and Chinese immigrants. The alleged cheapness was seen by nativists as feigning poverty or for undercutting already low wage levels. During the latter 19th Century, extravagantly spending Gilded Age millionaires were the idealized role models, while savers were mistrusted as being misers and somehow dangerous. The First World War, however, brought about a fresh wave of saving as a patriotic activity. That sense of frugality, in the form of buying heavily promoted war bonds, was out of fashion once again in the free wheeling Roaring Twenties. The Great Depression, out of necessity, and the Second World War, through war bond drives, ushered in a fresh wave of saving. The post war consumer based world, awash in Keynesian economic theory of demand and spending as a basis of a strong economy, removed the any remaining social support f! or frugality.

For me, the power of the book is in Lauren Weber’s even handed treatment of the past, present, and future of thrift in America. Not being satisfied with the mythology that saving money was always a way of life of all previous generations, the author demonstrates the constant changes in social attitudes toward frugality. On the one hand, Americans are told to save for their retirement and are warned that savings levels are dangerously low for most people. At the same time, the general public is encouraged to spend money on consumer goods to help strengthen the economy. This ambivalent, and often openly contradictory cultural view of money is indicative of American historical attitudes as a whole. For Lauren Weber, the idea that people saved money throughout history, in the good old days, is simply a myth. Her research proves that point conclusively. At the same time, she describes a new culture of frugality that is arising in reaction to the free spending, and debt r! idden society of the recent past. Again, the author shows the reader that constant contradictory nature of social mood and ideas about money.

I highly recommend the very readable and highly enlightening book In Cheap We Trust: The Story of a Misunderstood American Virtue by Lauren Weber, to anyone seeking a well researched and balanced social history of thrift in America. The author presents the changing cultural views of thrift, and how even the supposed virtue of saving money, has often been used as a tool of bigots. Lauren Weber makes clear that at some moments in American history, saving money has been noble and even patriotic, while at other times, thrift has been seen as dangerous and subversive to the good of the country as a whole. The author describes how Americans have never been able to make up their collective minds about the ultimate virtue of thrift.

Read the informative and often quirky history of thrift in America In Cheap We Trust: The Story of a Misunderstood American Virtue by Lauren Weber, and enjoy the ride through this charming, and insightful history of thrift in America. Discover the joys of saving money, and learn how the concept of frugality was attached to bigoted treatment of minority groups. At the same time, discover how cheapness is once again becoming an admired cultural phenomenon, as the pendulum of history swings back in support of savers. As throughout American history, contradictory attitudes toward spending and saving money are part of the national way of life.

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31 Ekim 2009 Cumartesi

Today Post::SPX 20/50-DAY TRAP

Long before the SPX formed the 20/50-trap, most stocks formed what I call the “20/50-day churn” which is essentially the same thing except that we do not know if the SPX will churn. The only way to tell is if a lower high is made, and that is yet to be seen.

The trap is basically when a stock or the market tests the 50-day and then test the 20-day MA’s, creating the possibility of continued narrow-ranged consolidation. The trap the turns into the churn if the range cannot be broken in it’s entirety.

In the case of the SPX, a churn is bearish as it cannot form a higher high. If the SPX can bust through the 20-day and flag, it is likely going to make the attempt to test the high of the rally. I am and have remained mostly neutral on my stand on market direction.

On the char below marks the 20/50-day MA’s. Also noe that we are forming an ascending broadening wedge within a larger rising wedge. In the first two corrections, the market was able to successfully bounce without the need for the 50-day. The past correction in the beginning of Oct required the 50-day. This correction needed further room lower. Make note of this trend as a mark of weakness.

I am still looking at my standard names such as AIG, but am also looking at CAR, NANO, NVTL, CROX, DAN, PVTB, CNXT for major reversals/continuations. I will mark trades if I take them.That is, if I make to campus before the open.

Today Post::KEEPING EYE ON THE RUSSELL 2K AND THE TRANSPORTS

Watch both closely over the next several days.

26 Ekim 2009 Pazartesi

Today Post::A LESSON ON CONCENTRATION

Thomas Edison was asked how he was able to accomplish so much with his time. He said, “It’s simple. You and I both have eighteen hours a day in which to do as we choose. You spend the eighteen hours doing a number of unrelated things. I spend it doing just one thing, and some of my work is bound to amount to something.”

If you want to be successful in any field, there is one rule to observe: concentrate your efforts. Get one thing in your mind. Learn to ignore all the distractions and temptations along the way. Then, put all the power you have into forward motion.

If you’ve read Ralph Waldo Emerson, you’ll know that he wrote two essays that apply to success, one titled “Power” and the other titled “Wealth”. The main theme in each is concentration. Emerson said, “Stop all miscellaneous activities. Do away with distractions, other duties, property cares, chores, errands, diverting talents and flatteries-all are impossible.” And he said elsewhere, “The one prudence in life is concentration. The one evil is dissipation.”

Can you concentrate on one goal when you aren’t quite sure what that goal is? Can you move forward firmly and decisively on one road without constantly looking elsewhere to see what’s going on? People who know how to concentrate put all their effort into their projects, continually improving their ability to succeed.

Dissipation is the opposite. A person who dissipates is like an archer who tries to shoot several arrows at once: the arrows move with dissipated force and rarely ever hit the target (unless you’re Robin Hood, maybe). People who dissipate jump from one thing to another, neither improving their abilities nor moving forward toward success.

How does this apply to trading? This can apply several ways. The most obvious is if you quit your job to trade, then find that trading might not be for you, so then you move onto something else and beyond. Perhaps your efforts in trading were not concentrated. How about continually trying to find the “holy grail”? We heard this term used so often, but surprisingly, many traders are still looking for it! Stop moving from one thing to another and concentrate your efforts in improving your core skills.

Let’s take the case of two brain surgeons with equal prospects of success. One puts all his efforts into his work and all of his money into a relatively safe investment to ensure longer-term financial success. The other doctor tries to play the stock market and practice medicine on the side (or vice versa). Ultimately, the second doctor’s practice suffers when the market goes up and his money when it’s going down (provided that he’s just another retail loser). How would you like to have brain surgery performed on you by a doctor who had just lost $100,000 in the stock market?

The point is, trying to diversify too widely will always detract from your success.”Where you believe the treasure is, there will your heart be also.” That is an immutable law. Can you then be a success if your heart is in three different places - or five or a dozen? No, of course not. I am having this struggle right now as I am juggling so many things at once such as my course work, fund, real estate, internet stuff like iBC and Stocktwits, and much more.

Whatever you choose to spend your time on, spend it well. Whatever your goals are, make sure they are unified. Only a person who specializes becomes truly successful these days. Word?

Today Post::STOCKTWITS.TV SHOW #3 CHARTS
















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